24 Thoughts on the Brink of the 2024 Presidential Election
On polling errors, campaign strategies, and my bet on the election
No matter who wins Tuesday's election, neither Trump nor Harris will be my President. They won't speak for me or represent me, and I’m not voting for either of them.
This isn't because I'm a "tribeless" voter fed up with both parties.
It's because I'm British.
Despite that, I've obsessively followed American politics since I started watching old YouTube clips of The Daily Show and Firing Line at 12 years old, and I'd like to think that my slightly outsider, non-stakeholder position gives me some useful insight.
To start, here's my record on the past two Presidential elections:
2016: I had extremely high confidence Trump would win. I put money on it.
2020: I had moderate confidence Biden would win but didn't bet on it. My confidence increased toward election day, and I ultimately expected him to win by bigger margins than he did.
Earlier in this race: I was comparatively early to say Biden's age was a problem — I even wrote a feature in these pages on Cenk Uygur's primary challenge. However, I was late to acknowledge how big a problem it would become. Before the debate, I thought Biden would eek out a close win over Trump. After it, like most observers, I thought it was a guaranteed loss.
Worth noting: Presidential elections are binary choices (much to Gary Johnson's chagrin). Therefore, my correct guesses on both elections aren't statistically that informative. I didn't have esoteric insider knowledge. Like everyone else, I was just making educated guesses based on what I read and saw. I just got lucky.
So, I want to share 24 of my thoughts on the most insane Presidential race of my lifetime, and tell you who I've placed a small bet on winning.
1. Don't expect a long night. Journalists fret about this, but expect one-directional polling errors, creating an election night like 2012, not 2000. By 9:30 PM EST, one candidate will likely have a decisive run in the swing states. We have to hope so at least.
2. Poll herding — where polling firms remove uncomfortable outlier results that don't match averages — is rampant this year, driven by fear of underestimating Trump again. As such, Harris could significantly outperform her averages, just as Trump's gains with black and hispanic voters could be more significant than expected. The New York Times/Siena and Ann Selzer are two of the only major polling firms with the stones to post big outlier results. Even if they're wrong (like Selzer’s viral Harris +3 result in Iowa), you should trust them more than random firms that simply tell you what you expect. Nate Silver (the GOAT) has written an excellent piece explaining this (and a follow-up on the implications of the Iowa poll).
3. Don't overthink early voting or mail-in ballots. They won't skew as partisan as they did in 2020, nor will they be evenly skewed per state and county. Pennsylvania can’t start counting mail-in or early votes until tomorrow morning; Georgia can do so as soon as they’re submitted. Exit polls aren’t bulletproof either; they’re just polls. Just chill, have a drink, take the information as it comes in from reliable people, and ignore pundits extrapolating too much from these.
4. The close polling is a serious indictment of Trump (and, less so, a credit to Harris). Biden was set to lose, but she has improved the odds to a coin toss; a remarkable turnaround considering incumbent leaders currently face electoral disadvantages across Western democracies. Voters have aggressively ousted incumbent governments in Britain, Japan, Canada, France, and Germany, and Republicans should be winning easily, especially given Harris's weaknesses as a candidate — and would be if they had a normal, or less abnormal, candidate. The race is close because Trump is electoral ebola.
5. The abortion issue has also played a big factor here. Before Roe's overturn, America was basically evenly split on abortion. Now, voters consistently support pro-choice positions in state referenda and hold Trump responsible for the current situation. This has dramatically affected the gender gap in polling, and many men also oppose the post-Roe environment. Perhaps my favorite quote of the election has been this from a piece by Katie Glueck and Kellen Browning in the New York Times:
Walter Telly, 66, of Hilltown Township, Pa., in Bucks County, said he twice voted for Mr. Trump, but was somewhat grudgingly supporting Ms. Harris this year. Abortion rights was one factor, he said: “The government shouldn’t be telling her what to do. This is not a communist state.”
6. Trump's campaign has made a bold, risky bet on mobilizing low-propensity voters— namely, young men, particularly in black and latino communities. People will read way too much into the result of this election, regardless of what happens, but this is one thing to pay a lot of attention to. If it succeeds, and his was a big part of his win, then Trump is an intuitive electoral genius (even if this path to victory is basically impossible for other Republicans to follow). If it fails—or proves marginal to victory—his podcast appearances will look like an egotistical waste of time, and podcasts will be largely ignored in the 2028 race. (For credit; Matthew Yglesias made a similar point to this in a recent column)
7. Along with exciting young podcast-listening men, Trump's media blitz has alienated crucial voters. His 2016 victory relied on hesitant voters breaking his way instead of choosing Gary Johnson or writing in alternatives, and this isn’t fair off; he has a devoted base but winning this race depends on reluctant voters prioritizing economic concerns over their distaste for him. But the more media Trump does, the more opportunities there are for him to drive these voters away, reminding them of his election denialism, his agitation and complacency around January 6th, and his general erraticism. Sure, he was very charismatic and funny on Theo Von and Joe Rogan, but he has had more than enough bad moments to undo a lot of this good will.
8. Trump supporters saying that Harris is cowardly for not doing a three-hour sit down Joe Rogan — and that “the American voter deserve that conversation” — are being idiotic. Despite some of his crankier beliefs, I like Rogan quite a lot and think he's a net good to the public conversation, but The Joe Rogan Experience isn’t a civic institution, and he doesn’t conduct hard-hitting interviews. 60 Minutes is a lot closer to that; an interview that Harris did and Trump dodged.
9. Tony Minchcliffe’s joke about Puerto Rico being a garbage-filled island may be the worst timed, most electorally consequential joke in history. Philadelphia — the most crucial swing-state — has a large Hispanic population, based in some of the most important counties, and they are majority Puerto Rican. Oops.
10. I’m staggered by how quickly America moved on from the attempted assassination of Trump, and his iconic reaction photo. If Biden hadn't dropped out so soon after, then maybe it could have been different but, as we stand here today, it may as well have not happened.
11. If Harris loses, Joe Biden bears most of the blame. It’s shameful that he ran for a second term, and frankly, if he respected the office as much as he believes he does, then he would have resigned already.
12. I think Trump is weaker on his core issues than most believe. Voters are concerned about the economy above all else and his concepts of plans are inarticulate and terrible — so much so that notable supporters of his, like Musk, have said that Trump will probably crash the economy in the first few years. His tariffs would massively increase inflation, and deporting millions of people would cost billions, setting aside the enormous negative downstream effects (the estimated cost of deporting one person is about $15K). Immigration is also a big issue for voters, and he isn’t great here either. Mass deportations seem cruel; when he was in office, he couldn’t build the wall; and his biggest achievement on immigration has been killing a great bipartisan border bill for his electoral benefit.
13. When you ask smart Trump supporters about many of Trump's worst policies or inclinations — deporting millions of people, taxing foreign goods, not standing by Taiwan, abandoning Ukraine, defying the results of the election, suspending the constitution, and trying to hold onto power etc. — they usually say that he won't do it; that he doesn't mean it or that he will be stopped by sane voices around him. In a recent debate between Ben Shapiro and Sam Harris, Shapiro’s argument broadly was ‘Trump wanted to overturn the constitution, repeatedly, but was stopped by people in his first administration, and it was pretty good, which is why I'm going to vote for him again.’ Whatever way you look at it, this is a bizarre argument to make in favor of voting for someone. If you can't tolerate this stuff, then you shouldn't be comfortable voting for someone who wants to do it; and if you don't believe he's going to do it, then you have no reason to believe he will do the policies you do like, other than out of sheer wish casting.
14. Trump has shaped his campaign around the border and trans issues, whereas Harris has made hers about democracy, abortion rights, "not going back," and country over party (trying to entice wary conservatives to vote for her). These approaches have significantly reduced the racial divide — with Harris gaining rural white voters, and Trump gaining young black and hispanic men — but has dramatically increased the gender divide. Perhaps more important than any of these though is the impact of inflation, as Harris is outperforming in lower inflation states, and Trump is outperforming in high inflation states (New York, Virginia, Florida). This last point is also from Nate Silver (still the GOAT).
15. There's been much chatter about the weaknesses of Harris's campaign, and I'm not quite sure what to think. Critics argue that she should have taken various opportunities for Sister Souljah moments (splitting from her left flank on the border, crime, trans issues Israel etc.), and genuinely explained why she has changed positions so dramatically since her terminally-online, pathetic, left-wing run in 2020 (a run in which she called Joe Biden a racist, who she then worked for). I personally would have liked to see this stuff, as would folks like Sam Harris, Bill Maher, and Andrew Sullivan, and I do think it would help voters know who she is, or how she wants to present herself. At the moment, she's a sort of non-person. Aside from a few genuine moments of passion for reproductive freedom, she just seems like a very insincere politician who will flip here and flop there depending on which way the issue polls are blowing. That’s a problem.
However, Harris, Maher, and Sullivan are not the kind of voter she needs to persuade — they’re highly engaged, highly political people who are all voting for her anyway. In fact, the more heterodox view is that she was campaigning best when she was saying less about these issues, focusing on her strengths, ignoring her weaknesses, and underlining how bad Trump is.
In the beginning of her campaign, she was focused exclusively on campaign rallies (where she performs great) and skipped interviews (where she doesn't); focused on the issues she's strong on and ignored those she's weak on; and generally just trying to sprint through to November. On top of that, she's brought out strong surrogates who appeal to skeptical but persuadable voters; be that Mark Cuban, Beyonce, or Liz Cheney. For a very short campaign, that's not a bad strategy! Matt Yglesias wrote a great column to this effect, arguing that, no matter how well a politician answers questions on a weak issue for them, it will still play to their opponents benefit. In a long election season, you have to answer those questions, but Harris has had a very short run here. Maybe she should have stuck to that style.
16. This isn't to say her campaign has been flawless, and I see two clear errors. The first is that she has utterly failed to separate herself from Biden, other than saying "we're different people” (duh). When asked if she would do anything differently, she said no; as she did when asked if their administration made any major mistakes; and says Biden is still sharp, when asked about his mental state. You can't say you're a "change" campaign, but also say you're exactly the same as the guy who was so unpopular that he dropped out. She doesn't want to throw Biden under the bus at all because it might come across as disloyal, but it's stupid, short-sighted, and cowardly, and leaves her unable to answer even easy questions.
17. The biggest mistake however has been choosing Tim Walz instead of Josh Shapiro as VP. If the Harris-Walz ticket win despite that, it was still a mistake as they took a massive unnecessary risk. If they lose, it will definitely have been a factor — perhaps the most significant one.
18. An obvious takeaway from both errors is that Harris doesn't actually think a second Trump Presidency will be the end of American democracy. If she did, she wouldn't have taken the risk on Walz and wouldn't have hampered her campaign by not going after Biden.
19. Harris murdered Trump in that debate, and he knew it, which is why he refused to do another one; and it's shame because it was hilarious.
20. Trump clearly wishes he'd chosen Elon Musk as his Vice-Presidential pick instead of J.D. Vance, and I think the consensus takes on both men are wrong.
For one, Vance has been a lot better on the campaign trail, during the VP debate, and in mainstream interviews than he has been on some isolated podcast clips. I've went from thinking he's a bad VP pick with nutty views to a pretty good one who has moderating (despite still having dangerous views on Ukraine, Taiwan etc.).
Similarly, Elon Musk has definitely been politically radicalized by "wokeness" and his Twitter addiction, but he's also went all in for Trump for mercenary, self-interested reasons. If Trump wins, he'll get stronger government contracts for SpaceX, be able to work tariffs to the benefit of Tesla, and push deregulation of self-driving technology. (This is my opinion, and I know you love free speech so much Mr. Musk — so please don't sue us).
21. If you’re a conservative who’s disgusted by billionaires and big money manipulating politics, then it’s mental to vote for Donald Trump. Not only is he literally a billionaire running for President for personal gain — whose biggest donor is the world's richest man, campaigning for personal gain — but his positions change wildly on what his donors demand. He wanted to ban TikTok; now he doesn't because megadonor Jeff Yass is a major investor in ByteDance. He disliked electric cars; and now he supports them, because of Musk. If an investor in PornHub gave him a few million, he would be on the stump talking about how much he loves Mia Malkova’s ass, give Kendra Sunderland an ambassadorship, and promise free Fleshlights for all Americans. Harris has a lot of money behind her too, but these are less specific donations from large businesses and billionaires who (reasonably) think that Trump's economic agenda will crash the economy, and she hasn't pivoted because of them.
22. The only pivot will be on Lina Khan, as every billionaire donor to Harris wants her to fire Khan; and she probably will, which is a shame. I disagree with some things she’s tried doing during her time at the FTC, but having an aggressive anti-monopolist in the federal government, who actually understands the modern internet, has been a great thing.
23. The global economy will likely get worse over the next four years, so expect whichever party wins this election to lose the next. If Trump wins, expect a President Shapiro, Whitmer, or Polis. If Harris wins, expect a President DeSantis, Rubio, or — if we’re lucky enough — President Burgum (#Burgmentum)
24. Finally: my low-confidence prediction is that Harris will win the election, and I’ve placed a small bet to that effect. Even if the election is a coin-toss, betting markets had been heavily favoring Trump, making the odds too good to pass up; and setting that aside, the higher turnout of women voters generally, and the likelihood that polling errors are in her favor, give her the edge in my view. I am obviously biased — putting it plainly, I do not want Trump to win — but I think I come to this fairly dispassionately. I just hope that the election is won by a solid margin, that Trump accepts the result if he loses, and that voters don’t burn down their neighborhoods if the election doesn’t go their way.